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Canada’s total fertility rate in 2024 was 1.25 children per women. This means we have joined the company of nations like South Korea with “lowest of the low” fertility. In the prehistoric past, otherwise known as my childhood, fewer would bat an eye at families with four or five children, even in the heart of Toronto. Today, only if these “large” families are lucky will they avoid snide remarks about whether they “know how that happens.” What gives?
Some, like J.J. McCullough with his one million followers on Youtube, believe “people just don’t want kids, or they’d have them.” A new Cardus survey of Canadians’ fertility ideals and intentions shows there is more to it. We recently published the results of a second wave of a survey we ran in 2022, polling 3000 Canadians in 2025 about how many children they would like and the obstacles to achieving those goals.
We learn Protestants want more children than Catholics, as measured by self-identification, not frequency of attendance. Quebec has the lowest fertility ideals in Canada, and those who lean right politically have higher fertility ideals than those who lean left. 59 per cent of men aged 40-44 have fewer children than they wish, and 53 per cent of women in the same age range say the same. Many more Canadians at the end of their reproductive lives want more kids than those who say they have too many.
The reasons for not achieving desired fertility are similar to the 2022 survey results, but surveying men for the first time in 2025 provides some interesting insight into the state of families today.
Among women under age 35 who would like to have (more) children but don’t anticipate having children in the near term, “life course” factors loom large, and slightly larger than in 2022. More women in 2025 than the previous survey said they can’t find a suitable partner, and plenty more than in 2022 are still in school. “I want to grow as a person” also increased as a factor for women between the two surveys.
In contrast, men are not as concerned with growing as a person. For men, who want more kids than women, financial concerns are the most often cited reason to not have (more) kids. Men are more concerned about leisure time in 2025 and are more concerned than women in every financial category except for job stability.
The idea that “kids require intense care” rose. Men and women equally believe that this is true. What was not equal is that more men than women are likely to say that their partner does not want to have kids. Women are expressing even greater concerns that they cannot find a husband/partner, and men are expressing more concern than women that their wife/partner doesn’t want children.
When we talk to audiences of young people about our marriage book, the questions inevitably shift to sounding like a war between the sexes. Our book conversations are not about having kids. They focus rather on the precursor, which is marriage. Nonetheless, it seems that men and women are both disgruntled, possibly wanting different things from life and not knowing how to get together.
If we consider the fertility study in this light, we might conclude where we started. If we truly wanted kids, wouldn’t we just have them? If we truly wanted marriage, wouldn’t we just get married?
Part of the story of Canadian family life is that what was once assumed is no longer easy. This is the most obvious statement a person can make. Family is secondary, until it is not, fertility likewise. What I mean by this is it’s easy to think at early life stages that having our own family may not matter. By later ages, this may no longer be true. And this results in many Canadians in their forties reporting they just don’t have the families they thought they would. In short, two things can be true at the same time; Canadians can both desire fewer children than historic norms, while also falling short of having the number of children they say they want.
In a sense, I sometimes feel like we make marriage and children into our retirement plan. I’ll do that later, once I finalize a couple more things. This is not quite a recipe for success in a world now concerned and sometimes almost preoccupied with dwindling fertility.
(Andrea Mrozek is a Senior Fellow at Cardus Family)
A version of this story appeared in the June 28, 2026, issue of The Catholic Registerwith the headline "Canada’s fertile ground for population collapse".
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