Immigration policy and “open borders” loomed large in the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump leveraging it as one of the deciding factors in finding his way back into the White House. 

Yet north of the 49th parallel, this issue — like many — has thus far taken a back seat during the 2025 Canadian election period, despite weighing heavy on Canadian minds before Trump’s threat of tariffs and annexing his northern neighbour changed the channel. 

Essentially, the crux of the ongoing campaign has largely, to date, boiled down to one word: Trump.

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However, fervent media coverage of the 47th U.S. President’s unfolding tariffs strategy has waned a bit in recent days. This perhaps provides an opening for other matters to provoke feeling and thought within the Canadian electorate. 

Political scientist Jacquetta Newman, a professor at the Catholic King’s University College in London, Ont., suggested that some Canadians may “feel uncomfortable” talking about immigration at this present juncture given the actions being taken south of the border. She contended this issue’s ability to rise in prominence could depend on “how willing the parties are to manipulate that type of sentiment.”

Prior to Trump taking the focus of Canadians, the immigration policy of former prime minister Justin Trudeau was one of the issues that had precipitated his fall from grace. The Liberal government had jacked up the number of newcomers welcomed to our shores, bringing in nearly 500,000 immigrants each year. But along with that plan, there was no corresponding effort to build the housing these newcomers would need. 

Conservative Party of Canada Leader Pierre Poilievre has expressed his desire in interviews and campaign rallies for the annual number of immigrants being admitted into Canada to be reduced to 250,000, an approach noted as a return to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper’s policy. 

Prime Minister Mark Carney, who Liberals chose just last month to replace Trudeau as their leader, has not yet publicized how many migrants a government led by him would admit into the country. In policy documents on his website, he did speak of the need to “cap immigration until it can be returned to a sustainable trend.”

However, on March 20, Carney added Mark Wiseman to his Canada-U.S. relations council of advisors. Wiseman, along with businessman Dominic Barton, co-founded the Century Initiative, a Canadian lobbying group calling for the population of Canada to increase to 100 million by 2100.

Claudio Ruiz Pilarte, the executive director of Catholic Crosscultural Services (CCS) in Toronto, paused during his interview with The Catholic Register to complete some calculations. 

“We’re talking about 60 million people divided by 75 (years),” said Ruiz Pilarte. “You’re talking about 800,000 people per year. I think that is a bit of a stretch,” he said with a chuckle.

Ruiz Pilarte also suggested that Canada can “add 100,000 more, at the very least,” on top of Poilievre’s proposed cap.   

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Canada is officially set to welcome 395,000 newcomers in 2025, a notable 21-per-cent decrease from the original goal of 500,000 entries. 

A noticeable shift in Canadian public sentiment regarding immigration and refugees is considered a driver in this reduction of target levels. According to late 2024 polling from the Environics Institute, 58 per cent of 2,016 surveyed Canadians said the “country accepts too many immigrants.” This represents a 31-per-cent rise from the 27 per cent of respondents who conveyed this conviction in 2022. 

These numbers are quite staggering, considering Canadians — so many of whom are immigrants or second-generation Canadians themselves — have long supported a robust immigration policy.

The data also indicated those surveyed view housing and affordability issues many struggle with as being caused by how the immigration system has been managed.

Ruiz Pilarte agreed that housing availability is “certainly an issue” and he has spoken to both Conservatives and Liberals about their approaches because CCS seeks to build more temporary housing for refugees and newcomers. He provided his appraisal of what he heard from both sides. 

“What (a Conservative candidate) said to me when I mentioned that project was, ‘Claudio if you (face) any obstacles at the municipal, provincial or federal level, let me know immediately. Those are the types of things that the Conservative Party wants to ensure are not a hindrance to making progress around housing.’ I know the Conservatives are certainly taking this very seriously. 

“From what I’ve heard from my conversations with the Liberal candidate, similar kinds of ideas, but I have to say my conversations with the Conservatives have reflected a much more aggressive push to make housing happen quickly,” he said.

Carney said he will double the number of homes built in Canada to 500,000, while Poilievre has pledged to reduce development taxes on new home construction. Municipalities that cut the development taxes on a home by $35,000 will receive a federal bonus of $17,500.

The Register sought comment from the Calgary Catholic Immigration Society (CCIS), but because of the organization’s non-partisan nature, a communications rep shared the position statements of the Canadian Council for Refugees. A council letter urges all federal leaders to “commit to messaging and platform policies that honour refugees and newcomers.”

International students are another important dimension of the immigration conversation since the two-year cap announced by the federal government in January 2024 is meant to target “bad actors” and abusers in the Canadian postsecondary system. Study permits have declined by 35 to 45 per cent according to various sources. 

Neither Carney nor Poilievre have signalled a willingness to reverse the cap in the immediate term. David Sylvester, president and vice-chancellor of the University of St. Michael’s College, said “the blanket cap didn’t look at those institutions that were acting responsibly and ethically” in terms of the Recognized Institutions Framework that help oversee steady, manageable international student growth and support. 

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Sylvester, who sits on the international committee of Universities Canada, also critiqued the talking point that students are putting pressure on housing.

“The reality is that universities have, including St. Mike’s, are putting tremendous resources into housing all its students so that they’re not one of the pressures that are causing a rise in housing,” said Sylvester. “And those politicians that characterize it that way — it’s not disingenuous, but it’s not the main reason.”